New Battleground Polls Show Kamala Harris Has Reshaped the Race
In a significant shift in the 2024 presidential race, the latest New York Times/Siena College polls reveal Vice President Kamala Harris is now leading Donald Trump by four points in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. This marks a major change from earlier polls, where Trump had a slight edge over both Harris and President Biden.
Harris’s Impact on the Race
The change in the polls can be attributed directly to Harris’s entry into the race. Before she joined, Biden’s low approval ratings were the dominant factor. This dynamic made it challenging for Democrats to employ their usual strategy of focusing on Trump and his MAGA base. Many voters felt trapped, having to choose between two unpopular candidates.
With Harris at the top of the ticket, the race has taken on a new energy. She has restored the typical political dynamics of the Trump era, where Democrats run as a more broadly acceptable alternative. In these polls, at least 49% of likely voters in each of the three swing states have a favorable view of Harris, a figure neither she nor Biden had previously achieved.
Trump’s Steady Base
Trump’s support has remained steady, with his favorability rating even ticking up slightly to 46% across the three states. This is his highest rating in the history of Times/Siena polling. It might have been enough to secure a lead against Biden, whose ratings had dropped into the 30s by early July. However, it’s not enough to surpass Harris’s growing popularity.
Harris as the “Generic” Democrat
Harris’s current standing can be likened to that of a “generic” Democrat, a label that carries more weight than it might seem. In polling, an unnamed Democrat often outperforms named candidates because they are not burdened by the flaws that emerge during a campaign. Last October, an unnamed Democrat led Trump by 10 points in these same states, even as both Biden and Harris trailed him by about one point.
At that time, there was no guarantee any real-world Democrat could appeal to enough voters to win. Harris, especially, seemed an unlikely candidate for this role due to her previous unfavorable ratings and the political baggage from her vice presidency and 2020 campaign.
Today, however, she is polling much closer to that “generic” Democrat. Voters are expressing confidence in her honesty, intelligence, and ability to bring the right kind of change. They believe she has the temperament to be president and a clear vision for the country. Only 44% of likely voters think she’s too liberal or progressive, with an equal number believing she’s balanced, and a small percentage saying she isn’t progressive enough.
Challenges Ahead for Harris
Whether Harris can maintain this momentum is uncertain. While she currently enjoys a position similar to a generic Democrat, she will now face increased scrutiny and attacks. So far, she has benefited from positive media coverage, major endorsements, and support from voters eager for an alternative to Trump and Biden. However, this favorable period will not last indefinitely.
The polls don’t provide a clear answer about how Harris will fare under pressure. The recent shift in public opinion shows that views of her are still fluid. If earlier polls showing Trump ahead were not based on firm views of Harris, her current lead may also be subject to change as the campaign progresses.
